Optimism is a rare commodity in the current geopolitical climate; the Middle East sits on a knife-edge and global shipping has hit the buffers.

The prospect of an economic boom appears as far away as it has ever been.

Yet, beneath the noise of international instability, a disciplined commercial property recovery is quietly taking root in the UK.

The latest data from the NACFB provides a necessary light in the gloom.

Broker-led SME lending surged by 25 per cent last year to £33 billion, supporting an underlying circa 185,000 jobs within these enterprises.

This is not the result of indiscriminate speculative excess, but of a mature intermediary market performing its structural duty: getting capital to where it can actually deliver yields.

From my perspective, the most telling statistic isn’t the headline growth, but the geography of its placement.

62 per cent of this lending occurred outside London and the South East; this is the manifestation of private sector-led “levelling up” that the state has regularly promised but seldom delivered.

It suggests a resilient, regional appetite for investment despite the macro-economic headwinds.

However, we must try to remain level-headed.

Growth in the commercial property sector is being hard-won and although brokers are successfully navigating the complex lender landscape, fundamental mechanical frictions exist with many transactions.

When an SME or a property investor looks to acquire a commercial asset, the 20 per cent VAT obligation acts as a significant liquidity trap.

In an era where senior lender interest rates are “higher for longer” and global markets are unstable, tying up hundreds of thousands, sometimes millions, in capital with HMRC for several months is an inefficiency that investors can ill afford, nor do they have to.

Now, as much as ever, it is essential to provide borrowers with the liquidity that allows these deals to complete without a three month wait for a VAT recovery.

By funding that tax gap within 48 hours, we grease the wheels of £12 billion in direct GVA – ensuring it isn’t held back by short term bureaucratic obligations to HMRC.

There are no certainties in 2026.

International volatility and the anticipated surge in oil prices mean we must manage our balance sheets and real estate ambitions with caution.

Despite this, it remains clear that the infrastructure of British business finance is more robust than it has been for a decade.

With a steady hand, there is no reason this cannot continue despite global uncertainty.

Indeed, a stable domestic market might prove an alluring prospect for international investors seeking a reprieve from global uncertainty.

The efficient broker market providing all of the liquidity that is available from lenders is going to add to that allure.

Speak to our team if you require VAT funding or check eligibility below.